Germany’s form since winning the World Cup has been rather mixed. Joachim Low’s team won its Euro 2016 qualifying group by a single point, but lost to Poland and the Republic of Ireland along the way, and suffered defeats to France, England and Slovakia in pre-tournament friendlies. There were also some nervous moments in Sunday’s opening game against Ukraine before a strong second half performance secured the win.
Adam Nawalka’s Poland side failed to qualify for the last World Cup but improved steadily throughout qualifying for Euro 2016, and earned a memorable first-ever win over Germany along the way. A defeat to the Netherlands and a draw with Lithuania was not the best way to warm up for the tournament, but Poland looked good in its opening Group C game, overcoming a stubborn Northern Ireland team to win 1-0.
Germany vs. Poland – H2H Stats
The first meeting between these two nations following the re-unification of Germany came in Poland in 1996 when Oliver Bierhoff and Jurgen Klinsmann secured a 2-0 win for the visiting team. Since then, Germany has dominated the fixture, winning four of their seven meetings and drawing twice.
The two rivals were drawn in the same qualifying Group for Euro 2016 and Poland picked up their first ever win in this fixture in October 2014, winning 2-0 in Warsaw thanks to second-half goals from Arkadiusz Milik and Sebastian Milla. Germany won the reverse match in Frankfurt 3-1 last September, scoring twice in the first twenty minutes, it what was a crucial victory that helped seal qualification.
It is likely that Joachim Low will stick with his standard tactics against Poland, which means one of his four talented attacking midfielders playing the false nine position and Toni Kroos pulling the strings as he did so brilliantly against Ukraine. Given Poland’s pressing style, the German midfield will have to work a little harder for space than it did against Ukraine, but should still dominate possession.
Poland was expected to take the game to Northern Ireland on Sunday, but different tactics will apply against Germany. The Polish midfield will be outnumbered, and Adam Nawalka is likely to have his side sit deep but press tirelessly, then hope to break down quickly the flanks, from where they can do some damage by firing in crosses for Robert Lewandowski and Arkadiusz Milik.
Germany vs. Poland Odds & Betting Markets
Germany looked shaky at times against Ukraine, and the Polish coaching staff will be studying replays of that game in the hope of replicating the same tactics. In theory, Poland should be better placed than Ukraine to trouble the German defence. Both Polish full-backs get forward in support and offer plenty of widths, and up front, Poland’s strikers are far more lethal. They are also pretty handy at set-pieces.
The problem for Poland will come in getting hold of the ball. They will press and harass the German midfielders in the hope of forcing a mistake, but will spend extended periods of time chasing the play. Germany is an expert at exposing vulnerabilities in opposing teams, and in creating overlaps and mismatches with their fluidity of movement and fluency of passing.
Can Poland hold out? It will take the utmost concentration for the full ninety minutes, and I’m not sure this young, attack-minded Polish side will be able to manage it.
If you’re going to bet on the Match Odds in this match, then look no further than Germany to win at 4/7 with Bet365.
Odds for First Goalscorer
Germany has multiple goal-scoring options, but that makes it hard to pick one, particularly at this stage we can’t be sure which player will play as a false nine or even whether Joachim Low might start with a genuine striker in Mario Gomez.
There is no such difficulty when it comes to Poland. Robert Lewandoski will lead the forward line and will be the target of most Polish attacks, but he will also be closely watched by a German side that knows all about his capabilities.
It could pay instead to focus on his strike partner, Arkadiusz Milik, who will enjoy more freedom than his well-guarded captain and looks a good bet to score first at 9-1 with 888Sport.
Odds for Total Goals
The two qualifying games between these teams produced a healthy six goals, and although Poland will have to spend a lot of time on the back foot, the Polish team is not a particularly defensive one, either by nature or strategy.
With Robert Lewandowski in the team, they are more than capable of finding the net, even in defeat, so it makes sense to back Over 2.5 goals at 5/6 with BetBright.